LONG READS SUNDAY #100
A retrospective on a couple of years that will be studied forever
Happy Sunday from the Hudson Valley
This crept up on me but here we are 2ish years and 100+ editions later. Instead of a regular episode, I’m going to go back to some of the content that defined those last two years, with a particular emphasis on the last 50 editions - the time and context surrounding which have been wild by any generation’s standards.
Happy Long Reads
NLW
A Long Reads Sunday Retrospective
This retrospective is in roughly chronological order, but beyond that, there is no particular narrative through line. The commonality, to the extent that this list has one, is that the issues I’m highlighting here feel as if not more relevant now than they did when I first shared them in LRS.
A Note
I did a one year retrospective as well. I’ve only repeated a few particularly relevant pieces in this one, so for that content check out the Year One LRS thread:
LONG READS SUNDAY 1 Year Retrospective
This weekend marks 52 weeks of LRS. To see everything that’s changed in that time, I’m going back and summing up each & every week: what we were talking about, who was driving the convo, and of course, the thread of the week. Let’s go! 👇
Now on to our main content…
The battle of privacy and surveillance - has only accelerated in the time of COVID-19
We must protect our ability to transact privately online. Without cryptocurrency, a cashless society is a surveillance society
This is at the top of of Coin Center’s agenda in 2019 and beyond:
The introduction of Libra was like a starting gun for the global battle for the future of money, as central banks that hadn’t taken seriously the idea of private currency all of a sudden became very engaged
Indeed, it even got a response from the highest office in the land…
I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity....
The Libra hearings in Congress came with some incredible moments.
It was around this time that the bitcoin narrative and the global macro narrative started colliding in a much bigger way
You get the picture.
Sadly, we are at one of the BIGGEST junctures for markets in history. You may disagree with my assessment of the odds. It doesn't matter. But you simply CANNOT ignore the risk.
Bonds. Dollars. Bitcoin and Gold.
Thanks for paying attention.
Revolutionary ideas - including a replacement to the USD as the world’s reserve currency - started getting thrown around
In layman's terms, he's saying: "Technology has the potential to destroy the dollar's network effect."
I have never heard a central bank figure say this.
Tuur Demeester @TuurDemeester
Some made historical comparisons to try to piece through why it felt like we were living in such revolutionary times.
1/ The main thesis of “The Bitcoin Reformation” is that there are four fundamental parallels between the Protestant Reformation and the present day, which could signal profound societal and economic changes ahead.
Even before the world broke to bits, the narrative tailwinds for bitcoin were strong
If I could only own one asset for the next 10 years, it would be bitcoin $BTC It encapsulates all of my larger macro views and feels like the point on the far horizon we are headed to, in some shape or form. Yes, like gold too and many other things but BTC risk/reward beats all.
Jamie Dimon in 2017: Bitcoin is a fraud.
Jamie Dimon in 2020: Crypto assets have a place in investors’ portfolios only as a hedge against a loss of confidence in both the domestic currency and the payments system.
How is that for a change in perception.
Welcome to the Fourth Turning. At this time, we have entered the "crisis stage" as defined by the generational shift currently in progress. Boomers are retiring, handing the reins to Gen-X, and Millennials are entering their wage-earning years. Let's look at some data.
But then the world broke to bits.
Incredible chart from Deutsche Bank's Torsten Slok. This is the fastest stock market correction in history
As the COVID-19 cases crept up, radical economic shutdowns were enacted, and the money printer revved, many were furious at who got what bailouts.
Explain to me why we should spent taxpayer money to bailout companies (airlines) who spent their cash buying their own stock so the CEO gets optionality, instead of having a crisis buffer.
We should bail out individuals based on needs, not corporations.
#Moralhazard
The scope of the response was staggering.
And of course, the blame game started quickly
The US is launching a massive anti China campaign via the media right now...if you can not see the writing on the wall (supply chains are leaving China) I can not help you
Some argued for focusing attention in positive directions
“Building is how we reboot the American dream. The things we build in huge quantities, like computers and TVs, drop rapidly in price.
The things we don’t, like housing, schools, and hospitals, skyrocket in price.“
-@pmarca
Others pointed out how difficult that was, given the circumstances
The reality is that the scale of the Fed’s response has started an important conversation about wealth inequality that is long overdue
Inequality and anti-capitalism in one chart.
The Fed, for the last 25 years, have used their tools and $$$ to preserve equity and credit prices at all costs. As a result, when economies contract, avg people get hurt.
Capitalists and Progressives should both puke this chart up.
"Powell Says Fed Policies ‘Absolutely’ Don’t Add to Inequality"
That is such a bold face lie & willful denial.
The Fed will never admit this because to do so would reveal their entire policy construct to be an absolute shambles.
Despicable.
The cynical realization that central banks will prop up markets no matter what the cost gave birth to a new generation - the Robinhood revolution and the Davey Day Traders
Millennials came of age in 2000. Through Robinhood they are betting against & beating the olds like Buffett & Druckenmiller who still believe in balance sheets, earnings, blah blah. Millennials have never known a value based economy in their lives. The economy does NOT matter.
Stocks 101: It only goes up. It never goes down. And if it does go down they’ll print more Schrute Bucks. #ddtg #fintwit
A new discussion of the dollar was kicked up, and it remains one of the most important macro discussions today.
The dollar bull vs dollar bear debate often focuses on the $12 trillion or more in dollar-denominated debt that exists outside of the United States.
However... (thread)
The Dollar Wrecking Ball:
I hear the narratives that the Fed is printing money...Brrr... and that is going to cause a dollar collapse. I worry that this narrative is very wrong. My strongly held view is that the dollar is the pinnacle of all the macro issues we face. 1/
In short, we’re living in strange times. As we move into what I’m calling the Groundhog Day economy - in other words, repeating the cycle from March and April but in Florida, Texas and the southern states today - it’s only poised to get weird.
As they say on Twitter…buy bitcoin.
THANKS FOR READING!